![]() ![]() In the end, though, the Phillies are paying Harper to produce runs and hit homers. (Such as Mark Teahen, Adam Eaton and Marlon Byrd.) But among those who stayed at the same position, they averaged to be about half as bad (relative to average) in the following season as they’d been in the decline year, regaining about 20 percent of their previous form. ![]() ![]() There were some other players who experienced the same kinds of defensive declines and responded by changing positions entirely. Ages are as of June 30 of the season in question. * According to an average of the defensive metrics found at and FanGraphs. Players who had a decline of at least 15 defensive runs* relative to average in a season since 2002, were younger than 27 and played in the same position for the same team In the season after that, Kemp still wasn’t good - he was -6 relative to an average CF - but he at least reclaimed some of the ground he’d lost in his annus horribilis.Īs it turns out, that’s a pretty common story if we look at the rest of the outfielders who met our qualifications from above and dropped off by at least 15 runs in a season since 2002: The fates of outfielders with Harper-esque defensive drops His 24-run drop ranks second-worst among outfielders under age 27 1 who played the same position for the same team in back-to-back years between 2002, trailing only Matt Kemp (who fell from being exactly average in 2009 to 31 runs below average in 2010). In 2017, before the big decline last season, Harper was actually 3 runs better than an average right fielder. Although baseball’s defensive metrics are getting better all the time, they are still prone to big swings between seasons. And if Harper becomes more and more a one-dimensional player, in an era in which his power hitting stands out less, he loses relative value.īut perhaps those concerns are a little overblown. Harper played 860 innings in right and 477 innings in center last season. Since we are already in the habit of raining on the parade in Philadelphia, let’s look under the hood at Harper’s underlying stats and see where the specific problems may reside.įor starters, Harper’s defensive metrics fell off a cliff last season.Īccording to an average of Defensive Runs Saved (which uses for its defensive WAR) and Ultimate Zone Rating (FanGraphs’s metric of choice), Harper was the second-worst right fielder in the game (-12 runs saved compared with average) and the fourth-worst center fielder (-9 runs saved). Historical comps for a player with Harper’s unusual and volatile career to date suggest that he might have already peaked and that star-level players, in general, have reached their peaks by age 26. ![]() But as we wrote last week, Harper’s consistency is a concern. Harper should still be productive in the near term and deliver important wins for the Phillies (after the signing, FiveThirtyEight’s projections for the 2019 season bumped the Phillies up to 84 wins, from 82, although other sites have been more bullish). After all, what made Harper so promising was not only his talent but also his relative youth, as a 26-year-old free agent. The Phillies hope it ushers in an era of sustained competitive baseball with Harper as a $330 million keystone. The club reportedly sold 100,000 tickets to regular-season games within hours of Harper’s signing. 3 jersey, the amount of fanfare that greeted him hadn’t been seen since the team traded for Roy Halladay in 2009. When Bryce Harper was introduced by the Philadelphia Phillies on Saturday in Clearwater, Florida, and slipped on a red pinstriped No. ![]()
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